weather · Trading

New York high 51°F or above on Nov 13

Will the official high temperature at Central Park (New York) on November 13, 2026 be 51 °F or higher, as reported in the National Weather Service's daily climate report?

18%chancedown 9 today

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Chance moved from 27% to 18% over this range (low 18%, high 41%).

Order book

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Buying NO at q¢ is the same order as selling YES at (100 − q)¢, so one book serves both sides.

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Market rules

Pinned in the exchange log

Resolves YES if the value of Daily maximum temperature, New York Central Park (NWS daily climate report CLINYC), for the day 2026-11-13, as first published by the source, is at or above 51 °F. Resolves NO if it is published and is not. Voided if no value is published by 2026-11-18T00:00:00Z.

Source: NWS series CLI/NYC. The rulebook's SHA-256 is 5b3a7d85bb631295… , recorded at log entry 11 when the market was listed; changing a single character of the rules would change it.

Timeline and payout

  1. Trading opens (done)Nov 11, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
  2. Trading closes (next)Nov 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
  3. Value published by NWSNov 14, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
  4. Outcome proposed and confirmed—
  5. Dispute window ends, payout—
Full rulebook (canonical JSON)
{"condition":{"op":">=","threshold":"51","transform":"level"},"event":{"exclusive":true,"outcome":"51°F or above","series":"nyc-daily-high","slug":"nyc-high-2026-11-13","tags":["daily","nyc","temperature"],"title":"Highest temperature in New York on Nov 13?"},"market":10316016,"observation":"2026-11-13","question":"Will the official high temperature at Central Park (New York) on November 13, 2026 be 51 °F or higher, as reported in the National Weather Service's daily climate report?","review":"automatic","revision":"first_release","schedule":{"close":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","deadline":"2026-11-18T00:00:00Z","open":"2026-11-11T00:00:00Z","release":"2026-11-14T15:00:00Z"},"schema":2,"source":{"provider":"nws","series":"CLI/NYC","url":"https://api.weather.gov/products/types/CLI/locations/NYC"},"title":"New York high 51°F or above on Nov 13","void":["no_value_by_deadline"]}

Resolution and evidence

No outcome yet. After Nov 14, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC the resolver fetches the value from the source, stores the response, and proposes an outcome; a second admin must confirm it, and holders then have 24 hours to dispute.