weather · Trading

Chicago high 47-48°F on Nov 14

Will the official high temperature at O'Hare International Airport (Chicago) on November 14, 2026 be between 47 and 48 °F, as reported in the National Weather Service's daily climate report?

25%chanceup 10 today

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Chance moved from 15% to 25% over this range (low 15%, high 25%).

Order book

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Buying NO at q¢ is the same order as selling YES at (100 − q)¢, so one book serves both sides.

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Market rules

Pinned in the exchange log

Resolves YES if the value of Daily maximum temperature, Chicago O'Hare (NWS daily climate report CLIORD), for the day 2026-11-14, as first published by the source, is between 47 and 48 (inclusive), °F. Resolves NO if it is published and is not. Voided if no value is published by 2026-11-19T00:00:00Z.

Source: NWS series CLI/ORD. The rulebook's SHA-256 is d66f27a81621de99… , recorded at log entry 202 when the market was listed; changing a single character of the rules would change it.

Timeline and payout

  1. Trading opens (done)Nov 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
  2. Trading closes (next)Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
  3. Value published by NWSNov 15, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
  4. Outcome proposed and confirmed—
  5. Dispute window ends, payout—
Full rulebook (canonical JSON)
{"condition":{"op":"between","threshold":"47","transform":"level","upper":"48"},"event":{"exclusive":true,"outcome":"47-48°F","series":"chicago-daily-high","slug":"chicago-high-2026-11-14","tags":["chicago","daily","temperature"],"title":"Highest temperature in Chicago on Nov 14?"},"market":10317024,"observation":"2026-11-14","question":"Will the official high temperature at O'Hare International Airport (Chicago) on November 14, 2026 be between 47 and 48 °F, as reported in the National Weather Service's daily climate report?","review":"automatic","revision":"first_release","schedule":{"close":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","deadline":"2026-11-19T00:00:00Z","open":"2026-11-12T00:00:00Z","release":"2026-11-15T15:00:00Z"},"schema":2,"source":{"provider":"nws","series":"CLI/ORD","url":"https://api.weather.gov/products/types/CLI/locations/ORD"},"title":"Chicago high 47-48°F on Nov 14","void":["no_value_by_deadline"]}

Resolution and evidence

No outcome yet. After Nov 15, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC the resolver fetches the value from the source, stores the response, and proposes an outcome; a second admin must confirm it, and holders then have 24 hours to dispute.