weather · Trading

Chicago low 35°F or above on Nov 14

Will the official low temperature at O'Hare International Airport (Chicago) on November 14, 2026 be 35 °F or higher, as reported in the National Weather Service's daily climate report?

47%chanceup 3 today

0 contracts traded · trading closes in 2 days

30%40%50%60%2:42 AM7:15 AM11:48 AM
Chance moved from 44% to 47% over this range (low 44%, high 47%).

Order book

Syncing…
Bids to buy YES
BidContracts
No bids
Offers to sell YES
AskContracts
No offers

Buying NO at q¢ is the same order as selling YES at (100 − q)¢, so one book serves both sides.

Recent trades

Reconnecting…
Taker boughtYes priceContracts
No trades yet.

Market rules

Pinned in the exchange log

Resolves YES if the value of Daily minimum temperature, Chicago O'Hare (NWS daily climate report CLIORD), for the day 2026-11-14, as first published by the source, is at or above 35 °F. Resolves NO if it is published and is not. Voided if no value is published by 2026-11-19T00:00:00Z.

Source: NWS series CLI/ORD/MIN. The rulebook's SHA-256 is 9f73a827357cc145… , recorded at log entry 1,544 when the market was listed; changing a single character of the rules would change it.

Timeline and payout

  1. Trading opens (done)Nov 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
  2. Trading closes (next)Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
  3. Value published by NWSNov 15, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
  4. Outcome proposed and confirmed—
  5. Dispute window ends, payout—
Full rulebook (canonical JSON)
{"condition":{"op":">=","threshold":"35","transform":"level"},"event":{"exclusive":true,"outcome":"35°F or above","series":"chicago-daily-low","slug":"chicago-low-2026-11-14","tags":["chicago","daily","temperature"],"title":"Lowest temperature in Chicago on Nov 14?"},"market":10317226,"observation":"2026-11-14","question":"Will the official low temperature at O'Hare International Airport (Chicago) on November 14, 2026 be 35 °F or higher, as reported in the National Weather Service's daily climate report?","review":"automatic","revision":"first_release","schedule":{"close":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","deadline":"2026-11-19T00:00:00Z","open":"2026-11-12T00:00:00Z","release":"2026-11-15T15:00:00Z"},"schema":2,"source":{"provider":"nws","series":"CLI/ORD/MIN","url":"https://api.weather.gov/products/types/CLI/locations/ORD"},"title":"Chicago low 35°F or above on Nov 14","void":["no_value_by_deadline"]}

Resolution and evidence

No outcome yet. After Nov 15, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC the resolver fetches the value from the source, stores the response, and proposes an outcome; a second admin must confirm it, and holders then have 24 hours to dispute.