weather · Trading

Austin low 53°F or above on Nov 14

Will the official low temperature at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (Austin) on November 14, 2026 be 53 °F or higher, as reported in the National Weather Service's daily climate report?

61%chanceup 7 today

0 contracts traded · trading closes in 2 days

40%50%60%70%2:42 AM7:15 AM11:48 AM
Chance moved from 54% to 61% over this range (low 54%, high 61%).

Order book

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Bids to buy YES
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Offers to sell YES
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Buying NO at q¢ is the same order as selling YES at (100 − q)¢, so one book serves both sides.

Recent trades

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Market rules

Pinned in the exchange log

Resolves YES if the value of Daily minimum temperature, Austin-Bergstrom (NWS daily climate report CLIAUS), for the day 2026-11-14, as first published by the source, is at or above 53 °F. Resolves NO if it is published and is not. Voided if no value is published by 2026-11-19T00:00:00Z.

Source: NWS series CLI/AUS/MIN. The rulebook's SHA-256 is 13393ec887678472… , recorded at log entry 1,663 when the market was listed; changing a single character of the rules would change it.

Timeline and payout

  1. Trading opens (done)Nov 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
  2. Trading closes (next)Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
  3. Value published by NWSNov 15, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
  4. Outcome proposed and confirmed—
  5. Dispute window ends, payout—
Full rulebook (canonical JSON)
{"condition":{"op":">=","threshold":"53","transform":"level"},"event":{"exclusive":true,"outcome":"53°F or above","series":"austin-daily-low","slug":"austin-low-2026-11-14","tags":["austin","daily","temperature"],"title":"Lowest temperature in Austin on Nov 14?"},"market":10317316,"observation":"2026-11-14","question":"Will the official low temperature at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (Austin) on November 14, 2026 be 53 °F or higher, as reported in the National Weather Service's daily climate report?","review":"automatic","revision":"first_release","schedule":{"close":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","deadline":"2026-11-19T00:00:00Z","open":"2026-11-12T00:00:00Z","release":"2026-11-15T15:00:00Z"},"schema":2,"source":{"provider":"nws","series":"CLI/AUS/MIN","url":"https://api.weather.gov/products/types/CLI/locations/AUS"},"title":"Austin low 53°F or above on Nov 14","void":["no_value_by_deadline"]}

Resolution and evidence

No outcome yet. After Nov 15, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC the resolver fetches the value from the source, stores the response, and proposes an outcome; a second admin must confirm it, and holders then have 24 hours to dispute.