3-4 magnitude 5+ earthquakes on Nov 15

Resolves YES if the value of Earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or more worldwide, by UTC day (USGS ComCat), for the day 2026-11-15, as first published by the source, is between 3 and 4 (inclusive), earthquakes. Resolves NO if it is published and is not. Voided if no value is published by 2026-12-05T00:00:00Z.

Source: USGS series WORLD/M5. The rulebook's SHA-256 is 031c73ff7b441b67… , recorded at log entry 8,136 when the market was listed; changing a single character of the rules would change it.

Timeline and payout

1. Trading opens (done)Nov 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
2. Trading closes (next)Nov 15, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
3. Value published by USGSNov 17, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
4. Outcome proposed and confirmed—
5. Dispute window ends, payout—

{"condition":{"op":"between","threshold":"3","transform":"level","upper":"4"},"event":{"exclusive":true,"outcome":"3-4","series":"earthquakes-m5-daily","slug":"earthquakes-m5-2026-11-15","tags":["daily","earthquakes"],"title":"How many magnitude 5+ earthquakes on Nov 15?"},"market":10318501,"observation":"2026-11-15","question":"Will there be 3 or 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or more worldwide on November 15, 2026 (UTC), as listed in the USGS earthquake catalog?","review":"automatic","revision":"first_release","schedule":{"close":"2026-11-15T00:00:00Z","deadline":"2026-12-05T00:00:00Z","open":"2026-11-13T00:00:00Z","release":"2026-11-17T00:00:00Z"},"schema":2,"source":{"provider":"usgs","series":"WORLD/M5","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/"},"title":"3-4 magnitude 5+ earthquakes on Nov 15","void":["no_value_by_deadline"]}

Resolution and evidence

No outcome yet. After Nov 17, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC the resolver fetches the value from the source, stores the response, and proposes an outcome; a second admin must confirm it, and holders then have 24 hours to dispute.